Most analysts and scholars are hesitant to consider this district any more competitive than leaning Democratic, even without Maloney. “The Democrats still would be favored if Maloney won the AG nomination,” says Richard Born, a professor of political science at Vassar College, who notes that while “a GOP upset would be possible,” he would “classify a Maloney-less race as lean Democratic.”
However, much of that hinges on the assumption that O’Donnell is a weak candidate with few funds, and that the Democrats could field a strong replacement for Maloney. But that’s far from certain. In fact, there is evidence to suggest that the opposite could very well be the case. If local Democrats can field a strong contender like Gere or Skoufis or even Alexander, they are probably favored to keep the seat. But they could easily end up fielding their own Oliva or O’Donnell. For those reasons, a win for Maloney tomorrow likely makes NY18 a tossup.
