Cost-Benefit Analysis

Beinhart's Body Politic

Larry Beinhart

The war in Iraq has cost about $434,000,000,000 (four hundred and thirty-four billion dollars) to date.

That’s pretty hard to grasp—especially on my income and probably on yours. Let’s bring that home and make it a little more understandable.

Albany County’s share of this is $597 million.

The cost to the residents of Ulster County is $354 million. The folks of Saratoga County are kicking in $469 million. Berkshire County, $201 million; Rensselaer, $309 million. So far. It keeps ticking away at $2 billion a week. (These figures, and an explanation of how they were allocated, can be found at costofwar.com.)

What did we get for our money?

The original deal—as presented to us—was to disarm Saddam Hussein for $50 billion. If we didn’t do it right away, the smoking gun would be a mushroom cloud.

Bizarre, but true, that was actually accomplished. And for far less. It wasn’t difficult, since Saddam was already disarmed. But by massing our troops and demanding UN resolutions, Saddam was forced to let the inspectors in so that we got to see it for ourselves.

But the administration was set on war! We’re not actually sure why. Perhaps they aren’t either. So they told us that the inspectors were associated with the UN, Switzerland, France, or some other foreigners, and therefore easily conned. Not like Americans. Not finding the weapons really meant that Saddam was super-tricky as well as super-evil. So the goal slipped from disarming Saddam to removing him.

Removing Saddam was going to be a magic moment. It was going to be like a Disney animated feature. When the ogre was slain, the entire kingdom would break out with flowers and the flowers would dance and sing. And welcome the Americans as liberators!

We were going to get so much more on our investment!

Strike a blow in the war on terror! Keep (non-existent) weapons of mass destruction out of the hands of a dictator who might give them to terrorists. Establish a democracy in the Middle East. Bring stability to the region and hope to other people under evil dictators. Make Israel safer.

Most of all it would be a demonstration. We would smite our foe like the Lord God Almighty, throwing thunderbolts and parting the very seas, so that all who saw would quake in fear and tremble before us. That’s the colorful, theological version, but it is, in fact, what the administration expected.

We were a beneficent power, too. We were going to rebuild Iraq. George Bush said it was going to be “the greatest financial commitment of its kind since the Marshall Plan!”

Were we committing to more money down the road? No. “We are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon,” said the ever-astute Paul Wolfowitz, deeply knowledgeable about third world countries, war, and finance. “What a deal,” as they used to say, throwing in a second pair of pants and a genuine silk tie, when you bought your bar mitzvah suit down on Orchard Street.

But it wasn’t a Disney movie. The commander-in-chief and his crew were wrong in their assumptions and incompetent in execution.

If they stop, they have to admit that. It’s not their money. Or their bodies. So while it may not be in our interests, it’s in their interest to turn the war into the Energizer Bunny, endlessly, mindlessly, going and going and going.

One question that should be asked, is: Where did the money actually go?

The answer is that nobody really knows.